14th – 18th May
GOLD – This here is the Gold weekly time frame. It is safe to say that we have witnessed the $1302 major level hold as support as consolidation mounted for several weeks. The US Dollar has surely gained strength within the last few weeks – sending the price of this precious metal towards the $1302 for consecutive re-tests. The fact that the US Dollar Index has reached a monthly critical resistance region – and has also signalled a pull-back from the weekly perspective surely indicates a climb in this price of Gold by the end of this month.
Now viewing this instrument in a technical view, this is the potential 6th higher low that this instrument can form – depending on the $1302 level actually holding as demand for the rest of this quarter. An upward movement is expected on Gold t0 re-visit the $1323 level and potentially the $1354 key resistance level.
USDJPY – We have witnessed the Dollar gain strength over the Yen within the last few weeks after price penetrates above the 107.801 key resistance region. Despite the bullish run that this instrument has adopted – I do not see price climbing further, 110.032 is expected to hold as the current high of this instrument for the rest of the month.
A pull-back is due, with the 1st stop being 109.209 with a further decline re-testing the 108.486 key demand level.
EURUSD – My favourite instrument. With the Dollar Index climbing and reaching new quarterly highs, the recent decline we have witnessed on EURUSD was not a shock.
As the 1.1849 level has held as support – a smooth pull-back has now occurred which coincides with the weekly false break from the 93.12 key resistance region on the US Dollar Index. I see price reaching the 1.2000 key psychological barrier, with a potential further climb towards the 1.20721 which is also the dynamic area of resistance.
7th May – 11th May
EURUSD – We’ve witnessed further Dollar strength on this currency pair – despite the fact that the NFP figures was released at 164K which was lower than the consensus which was at 190K.
Part of what contribute towards the further dollar strength was the fact that the unemployment rate was released at 3.9%, this coincided with a further decline on the EURUSD.
A pull-back was expected on this currency pair to re-test the 1.2780 key level of resistance, however it looks as though instantaneous dollar strength is occurring as the week begins. 1.17310 is the next downside target for EURUSD, however a pull-back to re-test the 1.12780 is a possibility before 1.17310 being met – triggering in another lower swing high from the daily perspective.
USDJPY – A smooth upward rally has occurred on USDJPY – also indicating further dollar strength against the Japanese Yen.
New quarterly highs at 110.031 has been reached, with a pull-back to revisit the 108.542 support region. Further upward movement is expected throughout this week on this currency pair – ultimately re-visiting the 110.482 key resistance level. Previous weekly close indicated a reversal, judging from the false break above the109.209 level – the fact that price is currently failing to reverse after the weekly false break surely indicates further dollar strength as the week progresses.
Price has also closed above the moving average indicator that I have on my chart – which is a dynamic area of previous resistance, which coincides with my bullish expectations.
GOLD – We have successfully witnessed the $1302 key demand level reached throughout last week’s trading. We have also witnessed Gold consolidate over the last few weeks – with the $1302 key level holding as a significant demand region, which I find highly interesting.
Subject to today’s daily closure, another lower swing high from the daily time frame could be on the cards – with a further decline after this has been confirmed when the daily close has occurred this evening.
A re-test is expected at the $1302 level. If price breaks below this zone, the next area for the price of this precious metal will be the $1291.50 level.
April 30th – May 4th
EURUSD – We have seen Dollar strength against the Euro this week, as expected and called out in our previous Weekly Trade Idea’s EURSD analysis. Price action has priced in higher lows and lower highs without any higher highs and lower lows – which ultimately coincided with the overall indecision this instrument has adopted from the daily and weekly time frames.
As expected, price has penetrated below the 1.2240 key previous demand region, continuing to decline with a strong daily closure below the 1.2168 key level. Further US Dollar strength is expected, however a pull-back is also due on this instrument to re-visit the 1.2240 level as new resistance and also re-tests the previous ascending channel that was formed. Lower swing highs and lower lows is expected on this instrument as a result of further Dollar appreciation. The Fed Funds Interest Rate release will be on Wednesday 7:00pm London GMT, which may have an impact on this instrument subject to any modifications made in their monetary policy.
USDJPY – The US Dollar has also gained strength over the Japanese Yen also this week as predicted. Despite the fact that the lows of this exchange rate were ¥104.636 >$1, the dollar has re-gained it’s strength by puling back and penetrating above the 107.801 key resistance region, where price was previously congested under. There were various indications of a dollar appreciation technically and fundamentally which contributed to my long bias on this instrument, price even surged higher than expected from the previous week.
A pull-back is expected from this point, t0 re-test the 108.542 level as new support, and possibly even 107.801, which is a potential 120+ PIP decline throughout this week. I do see further US Dollar strength after the re-test of 108.542, meaning price pulling back higher and creating further highs of the quarter towards 110.548. If there are any modifications in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, it will have an impact on USDJPY as well as the other pairs – meaning it is essential to stay out of any positions during the time of this release.
GOLD – The price action on this precious metal has been quite messy, however history and fundamentals still stand. Whenever the Dollar is doing well, the price of Gold suffers as a result, which we have evidently witnessed throughout this week.
Gold priced in US Dollars has consolidated for countless amount of weeks, to even months which evidently does indicate a high level of indecision and uncertainty on this instrument. We have also been witnessing lower swing highs from the daily time frames in the midst of this consolidation failing to re-visit the highs of $1365.98 back in Q1 2018. $1,300 is a very critical level, as it is a psychological barrier for this precious metal, and expectations of a re-test at this level quite high.